Published on: 27/03/2024
Looming Bitcoin Sell-Side Liquidity Crisis Sparks Analyst Discussion
In a series of unprecedented developments in the cryptocurrency market, new research from on-chain analytics platform CryptoQuant asserts that Bitcoin (BTC) is heading towards an unparalleled BTC supply squeeze, anticipated to take place within the next year. This could potentially mark a significant turn in the cryptocurrency’s evolution with demand forecasted to outstrip supply sooner than ever before.
Published on March 26, CryptoQuant’s latest weekly Crypto Report has identified a rapidly developing sell-side liquidity crisis. The research suggests that we are a mere 12 months away from a scenario where all available Bitcoin dries up. This forecast comes in the wake of escalating Bitcoin demand in 2022, largely propelled by the introduction of spot Bitcoin exchange-traded funds (ETFs) in the United States.
This steady bid now appears to be impacting the wider crypto market, with CryptoQuant indicating that supply dynamics might change irrevocably by Q1 2025. The report explains, “Record Bitcoin demand coupled with diminishing sell-side liquidity has seen the liquid inventory of Bitcoin fall to an all-time low relative to months of demand.”
CryptoQuants analysis, which includes only accumulating addresses in its calculations, notes net demand could potentially be higher, hence signaling an even greater market shortage.
Coming to the available BTC supplies on United States exchanges, research indicates that the capacity to fulfill demand is only at a 50% mark. The report states, “The Bitcoin liquid inventory falls to just six months of demand if we exclude Bitcoin from exchanges outside the US. This exclusion is based on the understanding that US spot Bitcoin ETFs will only source Bitcoin from US entities.”
This analysis was further supported by Ki Young Ju, CryptoQuant CEO, who termed the sell-side liquidity crisis as a catalyst for ‘waking up’ old supply. This assertion follows data showing that coins mined as far back as 2010, and dormant since, have been newly transitioned to a recently created wallet address.
Examining the current market trends, the ETF supply squeeze seems imminent with continuous net outflows observed during the week. However, recent data from the UK-based investment firm, Farside, suggests a possible reversal of this trend with a net inflow of $ 400 million recorded for March 25 - the highest in the last fortnight.
This impending sell-side liquidity crisis raises pertinent questions about the future of Bitcoin, potential market fragility, and investor implications. As Bitcoin sees old-supply revival amidst dwindling new supply, the crypto market might be bracing for a strategic reshuffling that could result in higher Bitcoin prices due to increased scarcity. However, investors would do well to weigh these possibilities against the inherent risk and volatility of the cryptocurrency market and base their decisions upon careful research and analysis.
In short, these developments underline the evolving dynamics of supply and demand in the crypto market and the resulting implications on Bitcoin prices, liquidity, and general market stability. Much lies ahead in the crypto narrative, keeping investors and analysts alike on their toes.
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