Published on: 16/02/2024
The Impracticality of 51% Attacks on Bitcoin and Ethereum: A Retrospective Analysis
February 16, 2024, marked a phenomenal leap in the cryptocurrency market when crypto intelligence firm, Coin Metrics, revealed that an attempted 51% attack on Bitcoin (BTC) and Ethereum (ETH) networks would now be impractical due to prohibitive costs.
A 51% attack refers to a potential threat to blockchain networks where attackers gain control over the majority of resources or voting power, thereby enabling them to manipulate the system. This threat has been a consistent concern for investors and market players, signalling potential instability and risk in the cryptocurrency arena.
The research conducted by Lucas Nuzzi, Kyle Waters, and Matias Andrade of Coin Metrics introduced a new metric, the Total Cost to Attack (TCA), to put these potential risks in perspective. According to their findings, the cost barriers to conduct such a malicious attack on either BTC or ETH have become insurmountably high, rendering such actions financially unfeasible.
The visibility of these findings comes as a game-changing moment not just calculated in dollars but in the perceived security and robustness of the Bitcoin and Ethereum blockchain networks. This not only assures investors about the systems resilience but also fortifies market confidence and strengthens these cryptocurrencies credibility overall.
An attempt to gain control over the Bitcoin blockchain would require procuring approximately 7 million ASIC mining rigs, translating into a colossal $20 billion investment. The markets sheer lack of availability of such a considerable number of ASIC rigs is one contributing factor to the report’s conclusion. Plus, even if an attacker succeeded in manufacturing these rigs, the cost factor would remain unaltered.
The case of Ethereum mirrors that of Bitcoin, especially with its transition to a proof-of-stake model. Moreover, compromising the Ethereum network using Liquid Staking Derivatives (LSDs) is not only financially challenging (over $34 billion) but substantially time-consuming too, which the report attributes to the churn limit that restricts immediate stake deployment.
Nic Carter, Partner at Castle Island Ventures, lauded Coin Metrics’ comprehensive report for its empirical evaluation of 51% threats on leading cryptocurrency networks. He highlighted the originality of the study, noting that it has filled the gap with a concrete, data-driven approach that previous theoretical studies lacked.
The inability for 51% threats to feasibly take down these market leaders marks a significant shift in understanding blockchain technologys resilience. This research provides an empirical basis, a departure from previous theoretical assessments, thereby emboldening investors confidence in the security of these digital assets.
As we look towards an uncertain future with rising digital currencies, this research stands as a testament to the resilience of Bitcoin and Ethereum against persisting threats. For investors, this announcement should provide solace and could likely encourage new investments in these robust and resilient cryptocurrencies.
For the industry at large, this represents an important turning point where we see the power of technology not just in creating these crypto networks but also in securing them. As we further delve into this digital era, reinforcing such safeguards will be critical to maintaining the stability of the evolving crypto market and the confidence of investors worldwide.
The increased safety of Bitcoin and Ethereum could set the stage for these cryptocurrencies to maintain their market leads, potentially stimulating investor confidence, and initiating subsequent market growth for these digital trailblazers.