Published on: 10/04/2024
Bitcoin, the leading cryptocurrency, saw yet another topsy-turvy period around April 10th as its price descended from a nearly record high of $73,800 to stabilize around $69,400. With the Bitcoin halving, a key event in the world of cryptocurrency, less than ten days away, the market is thick with anxiety. Will the previous all-time high sustain, or is another crash imminent?
Interestingly, this is Bitcoins third unsuccessful attempt to break significantly below its all-time high, pointing towards trader uncertainty around these record levels. Consequently, the potential for sharp price declines has increased, according to Arthur Hayes, co-founder of BitMEX.
Hayes anticipates a crypto firesale in the latter half of April, propelled by a decrease in liquidity due to U.S. tax payments, the commencement of quantitative tightening by the Federal Reserve, and the impending utilization of the Treasurys General Account (TGA).
A survey conducted by Deutsche Bank revealed a divided consumer sentiment towards the cryptocurrencys future. While about one-third foresee its value dropping below $20,000 by the end of 2024, only 10% expect it to reach beyond $75,000. Interestingly, almost equal proportions of the participants were optimistic about its long-term prospects (40%) or foresee its disappearance (38%).
Crypto market analyst Rekt Capital predicts a tumble for Bitcoin to around $40,000 after the halving, citing similar price movements around the preceding three halvings. This projection is based on the cryptocurrencys historical behavior, which typically experiences retracement of roughly 20-40% before its halving events.
For context, the 2024 position indicates an 18% pullback, edging towards its 20% correction preceding the 2020 halving. This statistic suggests more room for downside shock ahead of the 2024 halving.
What does this scenario signify for the future, particularly for investors?
As per Rekt Capital, the aftermath of the 2024 halving might witness a re-accumulation phase – a period of price consolidation inside the $60,000-70,000 range followed by a sudden breakout towards a new high. Yet, this phase can last quite a while, potentially up to five months, and often leads to investor impatience and disappointment.
The alternative scenario, should prices dip below $60,000, is a further drop towards Bitcoins ascending trendline support around $40,000. Consequently, this cryptocurrencys unpredictability presents both risk and opportunity.
These market movements underscore the volatile and high-risk nature of cryptocurrency investments. However, they also highlight the potential for high reward. As always, potential investors are encouraged to conduct thorough research and ideally seek professional advice before entering the market. The exciting world of Bitcoin awaits them, replete with its wild rides and breathtaking peaks.