Published on: 08/04/2024
The second week of April has seen Bitcoin (BTC) ride the bull market wave, soaring over the $70,000 threshold. A relentless surge on the back of its weekend gain as BTC price is inching closer to its all-time highs. The growing anticipation ahead of Wall Street’s opening bell is the cherry on top for bullish traders desperately seeking a rally.
Is there much meat left on this bone?
According to various trading circles, capitalized gains and excitement from weeks of corrective moves have primed Bitcoin for further upward mobility, leaving a sense of déjà vu in the world of cryptocurrency. However, considering Bitcoin’s next block subsidy halving set to occur in 10 days, continuing price volatility seems inevitable. This means miners are in the home-stretch for preparing for the block reward to drop by 50% overnight.
With network fundamentals set to reign supreme and record difficulty highs awaiting just over the horizon, it’s crucial for investors to keep an eagle eye on any developments.
In macroeconomic sentiment, the U.S. Federal Reserve’s overnight interest rate cuts are less likely to occur swiftly, cooling off the market temperature for Bitcoin. In light of these factors, Bitcoin has its finger on the pulse for the weekly CPI and PPI prints for March, with U.S. inflation expectations contrasting with signals from Europe.
Now, lets explore a significant event on the horizon: the Bitcoin halving. With the date closing in, attention has shifted to miner preparations. The Bitcoin reward per mined block is set to trim by half to 3.125 BTC in less than two weeks. On this, CryptoQuants CEO, Ki Young Ju, has shared that mining costs for Bitcoin are expected to double by the end of the month. This could serve as a stress test for smaller entities who have less maneuverability to combat fluctuating market conditions.
Despite this additional pressure, network fundamentals indicating the health and security of Bitcoin blockchain remain strong. With mining difficulty and hash rate near all-time highs, Bitcoin is hitting key milestones ahead of the halving.
Looking at the wider context, it’s essential to note that Bitcoin’s long-term holders (LTHs) have been increasingly active sellers at current prices. Old coins moving on-chain sway the LTH’s spent output profit ratio in favor, encouraging more selling action.
However, Checkmate from Glassnode attests this is nothing out of the norm and should not result in the sell-side pressure undermining the market. History has merely repeated itself; LTH entities have always shed around 14% of the BTC supply under their control during bull markets. So far, a smaller chunk has exited their wallets.
What does this mean for your investments in Bitcoin?
For those considering investing or currently invested in Bitcoin, it’s crucial to be prepared for price fluxes with the block halving on the horizon and LTH entities ready to sell. Your strategic approach to investment should therefore absorb these cyclical shifts, focusing on long-term gains over short-term volatility. Therefore, it is vital to ensure a solid understanding of upcoming changes in Bitcoin and be ready to adapt strategy whilst maintaining focused on long-term objectives in order to keep riding the Bitcoin bull market wave.